Monday, 27 July 2026, 22:52
The Texas U.S. Senate race between Republican incumbent Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched contests in the 2026 midterms. After Talarico narrowly won the Democratic primary, he now faces a candidate who has repeatedly defied political gravity—surviving securities fraud indictments, federal investigations, and fierce primary challenges. Polls show the race in a dead heat, adding to the intensity.
Paxton first took office as Texas attorney general in 2014 and quickly became a lightning rod for controversy. In 2015, he was indicted for securities fraud. In the 2018 election, Democrat Justin Nelson ran television ads featuring security camera footage of Paxton pocketing an expensive pen that didn't belong to him, taunting 'he won't steal your pen.' Despite that, Paxton won re-election by a margin of just 3.6 points—a thin win but a win nonetheless. Nelson spent roughly $6.5 million, about half of Paxton's $13 million campaign.
Four years later, Paxton faced a primary challenge from George P. Bush, the Texas land commissioner and scion of the Bush political dynasty. Bush put up billboards calling Paxton 'a crook' next to his mugshot from the securities fraud case. Despite being under federal investigation for alleged abuse of office and bribery, Paxton crushed Bush in a runoff by 34 points. Pro-Paxton organizations spent more than $20 million, about twice as much as Bush and his allies. He then defeated Democrat Rochelle Garza in the general election. Garza later said her campaign had a 300-page opposition research file on Paxton but found it challenging to focus on his past because voters had heard it for years. Ash Wright, who worked as a senior adviser to Bush, said, 'The guy’s ability to take shots and just keep moving on and stay in elected office is unlike anything I’ve ever seen in my career, in 25 years of running campaigns.'
In 2026, Paxton again survived a primary challenge from U.S. Sen. John Cornyn, who warned that 'judgment day is coming.' Paxton won the primary and now faces Talarico.
More recently, Paxton split with his wife, who filed for divorce on 'biblical grounds.' New controversies have emerged. The New York Times reported that Paxton, a blind trust, and a family trust have acquired 15 properties worth $9 million, despite Paxton's annual salary of $153,000. Additionally, The Texas Tribune and ProPublica reported that Paxton has voted in six elections in the past two years using an address at which he no longer lives. The Attorney General's office issued a release in February stating that it is illegal for a voter to misrepresent their residence, but Paxton's campaign said he has complied with state law.
During a campaign event in Fort Worth, Paxton appeared with two dozen Texas sheriffs who endorsed him. He criticized Talarico for his record on law enforcement, claiming Talarico tried to defund the police. When asked by CBS News Texas about the property and voting reports, Paxton declined to answer, saying he wanted to keep the focus on law enforcement. Talarico's campaign responded by challenging Paxton to debate.
Talarico, a state representative from Round Rock, has studied previous campaigns and is trying a fresh angle. Rather than rehashing old scandals, he aims to link Paxton to a broader 'culture of corruption' that has failed to deliver results for working Texans.
'Every time a fighter, like President Donald Trump and now Ken Paxton, stands up to the permanent political class, even after they are completely acquitted of wrongdoing, people like James Talarico continue pushing the same accusations and claiming corruption,' said Paxton campaign spokesperson Madison Cercy.
Paxton's team is confident that voters have already heard and dismissed the scandals. But Talarico's allies argue that the 2018 close call and the expensive 2022 primary show vulnerability, especially with a high-spending campaign that could go 'louder and longer,' as Nelson put it.
Talarico has also faced scrutiny. At a town hall in Houston, some Black community members criticized him for not being responsive enough. Talarico addressed the issue, stating, 'There is no way to win Texas without Black Texans. If we're going to do that effectively, we have to show up for, invest in, and listen to Black communities.' He noted that his campaign is polling better with Black Texans than any Democrat in modern Texas history and pledged to spend $25 million on get-out-the-vote efforts and communication with the Black community. However, Talarico's campaign did not deny that he made a donation to a group that advocated defunding the police, though the campaign said Talarico opposes that policy and has approved state budgets that sent billions to law enforcement.
This Texas race may seem distant from California, but the outcome could have national implications. California voters have their own Senate race in 2026, and the strategies used in Texas—particularly around baggage and corruption messaging—often cross state lines.
Ken Paxton's legal troubles are numerous: a 2015 indictment for securities fraud (which ended in 2024 when he was ordered to pay nearly $300,000 in restitution), a 2020 federal investigation into bribery allegations, and a 2023 whistleblower lawsuit that led to his impeachment by the Texas House. The Texas Senate acquitted him in 2023. Each time, Paxton has leveraged conservative legal battles over immigration, abortion, and transgender issues to rally the Republican base.
Whether James Talarico can break the pattern remains to be seen. His campaign is betting that a focus on systemic corruption and a well-funded ground game can overcome Paxton's proven resilience. The new controversies surrounding both candidates add uncertainty to an already tight race. Texas voters will decide in November.
