Monday, 27 July 2026, 22:50
California and two other states have avoided the harshest water cutbacks the Trump administration could have imposed over the next two years to deal with the deepening crisis on the Colorado River. Federal officials have agreed with an offer made earlier this year by California, Arizona, and Nevada to reduce what they take from the river by at least 3.2 million acre-feet between now and the end of 2028. The proposal was first made in May by the three states.
Under the plan, California will cut its use of Colorado River water by about 12% through 2028, Arizona will take about 31% less, and Nevada 28% less, according to two officials at state and local agencies who spoke anonymously since details of an announcement are still being finalized. The Trump administration could have required cuts nearly twice as large.
The Colorado River provides water for about 35 million people and 5 million acres of farmland, from the Rocky Mountains to Southern California and northern Mexico. It has shrunk dramatically in the last 27 years, and research shows climate change is intensifying the extremely dry conditions. This year, the upper portion of the river’s watershed in the Rocky Mountains had the least snow on record.
The Trump administration’s two-year blueprint aims to strike a compromise between the three downstream states of California, Arizona, and Nevada, and the upstream states of Colorado, Wyoming, Utah, and New Mexico. They’ve been at an impasse in negotiations while the river’s reservoirs continue to decline. Last week, the major reservoirs Lake Mead and Lake Powell fell to their lowest combined levels on record. Lake Mead is now 27% full, and Lake Powell is at just 23% of capacity. If Lake Powell drops an additional 33 feet, water won’t reach its intakes to generate hydroelectric power.
Although the federal plan aims to slow the decline of Lake Powell, it may not be enough to prevent the loss of hydropower at Glen Canyon Dam as water levels continue dropping.
While the lower states are avoiding even larger cuts for the time being, the Trump administration is rejecting other parts of their proposal. For example, the lower states pushed unsuccessfully for a federal promise to release more water each year from upstream reservoirs into Lake Mead. The Bureau of Reclamation is not requiring water cuts for the four upper states over the next two years. Instead, the Trump administration is providing funds for water-saving efforts, including $350 million for the lower states and $100 million for the upper states. The money comes from the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act, and will go to pay urban agencies that leave water in Lake Mead, and farmers and ranchers who agree to leave fields dry. Some agreements have already been signed, while others are being drawn up.
Federal officials have been in talks with state negotiators while preparing new rules for dealing with shortages over the next 10 years. The federal government must adopt a new framework this year because the old rules, set in 2007, are expiring. U.S. Interior Secretary Doug Burgum met virtually with the governors of the seven states on Tuesday and said next week his agency will release a document — formally called a final environmental impact statement — detailing a new “operating framework.”
One state representative said this framework will essentially “define the corners of the football field” by outlining how large cuts should be based on reservoir levels. The 10-year framework will enable much larger cutbacks if deemed necessary in future years — as much as 40% of the combined allotments of California, Arizona and Nevada. The specific cutbacks in 2027 and 2028 will soon be detailed in a separate plan, which could later be revised if larger cuts are needed to prevent reservoirs from reaching dangerously low levels. What happens after 2028 remains to be negotiated among the states.
Farms in the Imperial Valley, which produce crops from hay to vegetables, depend entirely on the river. Cities across Southern California have been getting nearly one-fourth of their water from the river in recent years. It’s not yet clear how much they will need to cut back.
The Colorado River has been in crisis for years due to overuse and drought exacerbated by climate change. The river’s largest reservoirs, Lake Mead and Lake Powell, have declined to record-low levels, underscoring the urgent need to cut water use. The 2007 shortage-sharing rules are expiring, prompting the need for a new long-term framework.
This deal provides temporary relief but is not a permanent solution. As Felicia Marcus, a water researcher at Stanford University, said, “It’s bigger than a Band-Aid, but smaller than the tourniquet we really need.” She also noted that for the Trump administration, accepting the proposal 'is taking the path of least resistance.' And there are no guarantees the states won’t be forced to take more dramatic action within the next two years, Marcus said.
Despite the agreement, the possibility of a legal dispute between states remains, as the fundamental problem of reduced flows on the Colorado River persists.
