Wednesday, 29 July 2026, 1:34
Federal scientists have declared a strong El Niño is now virtually certain to develop this year, with odds of a 'very strong' event reaching 81%. This climate pattern, characterized by warmer Pacific waters, is set to significantly impact California, tilting the odds toward a wetter, more hazardous winter for Southern California and amplifying heat risks across the state. Beyond California, economists are warning that this 'super' El Niño could cause a severe shock to global food prices lasting into 2028, compounding existing pressures from the Iran war and soaring living costs.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday there is a 97% chance El Niño will be either 'strong' or 'very strong' over the three-month period ending December 2026. Forecaster Michelle L'Heureux noted that ocean temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific are already running well above normal, with June marking the fourth-warmest on record since 1950. The warm pool of water in the western equatorial Pacific is expanding eastward, and precipitation has already increased over the central tropical Pacific.
NOAA's growing confidence is being driven by extreme ocean heat already in place across the Pacific. The agency's latest analysis shows unusually warm water stretching across much of the equatorial Pacific, with some pockets of warmth reaching nearly 1,000 feet below the ocean surface. That deep reservoir of heat can continue feeding warmer surface waters for months, helping sustain and strengthen the climate pattern. One particularly notable sign has emerged in the eastern Pacific, where a normally persistent zone of colder upwelled water — known as the "cold tongue" — has largely disappeared earlier than expected. Scientists say that kind of warming typically occurs later in the development of major El Niño events and may signal that the system has room to intensify further during the second half of the year.
Federal forecasters sharply increased confidence Thursday, July 8, that the developing El Niño will become one of the strongest on record — a shift that could have major implications for California's weather, beaches, water supply, economy and coastal ecosystems over the next year. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration now places the odds of a very strong El Niño at 81% by the end of 2026, up from 63% in its June outlook. Forecasters also moved the expected peak of the event forward to October and increasingly expect El Niño conditions to persist through spring 2027. The updated forecast comes as ocean temperatures across the tropical Pacific continue to shatter records. In parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific, sea surface temperatures are running nearly 3 degrees Celsius above average — a sign that this event could rival some of the most powerful El Niños observed since modern recordkeeping began in 1950.
El Niño, declared by NOAA just one month ago, is strengthening at a rapid clip. It has now reached “moderate” strength weeks ahead of schedule and shows no sign of slowing down. According to the World Climate Service, sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region of the Pacific Ocean have climbed 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit (2 degrees Celsius) above average, reaching the threshold for a “super” El Niño. It remains to be seen whether this significant anomaly will hold, but on Thursday, NOAA forecasters said there is an 81% chance of a “very strong” El Niño between October and December. That would make this event one of the largest—potentially the largest—since record keeping began in 1950. The Niño-3.4 region is the primary section of the equatorial Pacific that scientists monitor for El Niño and La Niña. Sea surface temperatures in this region have been record-high for a month straight, according to meteorologist Ben Noll. “The current streak is now just days away from the 40-day record set during the historic 1997 event,” he said in an X post on Thursday.
El Niño typically reaches peak strength between November and February, so this event still has months to ramp up. Some forecast models predict that sea surface temperatures in the Niño-3.4 region will peak at nearly 9 degrees F (5 degrees C) above average. For reference, the highest peak temperature anomaly ever recorded for El Niño was 4.5 degrees F (2.5 degrees C) during the 1982-1983 event, according to The Weather Channel. It’s still too soon to tell exactly how strong this El Niño will be, but even the most conservative forecasts show peak temperatures well above the 1982-1983 record.
Michelle L'Heureux, who leads the ENSO team at the Climate Prediction Center, noted that she cannot recall a time in her career where the model guidance has been so consistently predicting a strong-to-very strong El Niño. She added that there is still a 1-in-5 chance of the event being less than very strong, but these are still impressive probabilities for ENSO forecasts made in early July.
Some uncertainty remains over how exactly El Niño will take shape. Some models show this El Niño developing into the same range as the seven “very strong” events since 1950, while others forecast it could be the strongest ever. However, Josh Willis, a senior research scientist for NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, told SFGATE that the event got a slow start compared with previous notable El Niños based on sea level metrics. "I would call this El Niño a late bloomer," Willis said. "A lot of people predicted a really huge El Niño, and it could still be, but right now it’s smaller than 2015 was in July, and it’s way smaller than 1997 was in July. So where’s it going to land in this biggest category? I would say it’s unlikely to be the strongest El Niño in 30 years, but it’ll wind up being pretty strong."
According to the latest ENSO Diagnostic Discussion issued by the Climate Prediction Center on July 9, 2026, El Niño strengthened over the past month, with a large area of sea surface temperature anomalies in excess of +1.0°C across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The latest weekly Niño-3.4 index value was +1.2°C, with the westernmost (Niño-4) and easternmost (Niño-1+2) indices at +0.5°C and +2.7°C, respectively. The equatorial subsurface temperature index increased, as a recent downwelling Kelvin wave deepened the thermocline and raised temperatures in the eastern Pacific. Low-level westerly wind anomalies and upper-level easterly wind anomalies were observed over the western and central equatorial Pacific. Convection was enhanced over the central and east-central equatorial Pacific and was suppressed over Indonesia. The traditional and equatorial Southern Oscillation indices were significantly negative. Collectively, the coupled ocean-atmosphere system reflected a strengthening El Niño. The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) average, including the NCEP CFSv2, forecasts El Niño to intensify through 2026. Alongside model forecasts, a strong coupling of the atmospheric and oceanic circulation across the Pacific contributes to very high confidence that El Niño will continue through early 2027. There is an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October-December that would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950.
For Southern California, a strong El Niño typically shifts the winter jet stream farther south, bringing more storms and above-average rainfall. This raises the risk of flash floods, mudslides, and landslides, particularly in areas recently burned by wildfires. In Los Angeles County, the 'strong' El Niño of 2023-24 brought the second-rainiest three-day period since 1877 and hundreds of landslides. However, the connection is not absolute: during the 'very strong' 2015-16 El Niño, downtown Los Angeles received only half its typical rainfall.
Historically, strong El Niño events tend to tilt the odds toward wetter-than-normal conditions across much of California, especially in Southern California and portions of the Central Coast. That can bring welcome precipitation after years of drought concerns, but it also raises the possibility of heavy rainfall and urban flooding, debris flows near wildfire burn scars, higher river levels and flood-control challenges, landslides and roadway damage, and coastal erosion during powerful winter storms. California's water managers could again face a familiar challenge: balancing flood-control efforts while trying to capture and store water for future dry periods. A wetter season does not necessarily solve long-term water problems, especially if warmer storms fall as rain instead of snow in the Sierra Nevada.
Notably, as of June 30, 2026, the U.S. Drought Monitor reported that for the first time in 25 years, none of California was in drought or even abnormally dry. This represents a major swing for Southern California: this time last year Los Angeles was experiencing its second-driest period in almost 150 years of record-keeping, fueling some of the most destructive wildfires in California’s history. The current drought-free status provides a stark contrast to the conditions that preceded the 2025-26 fire season.
During three of the four 'very strong' El Niños on record, downtown Los Angeles saw significantly more rain than average. In 1982-83 and 1997-98, rainfall more than doubled the annual average. But the 2015-16 event was a notable exception, highlighting the variability of El Niño's impacts.
In Northern California, the impacts of past very strong El Niños have also varied. The 1983 and 1998 water years were very wet in Northern California, with Sacramento, Stockton and Modesto each about doubling their typical rainfall. Both years had damaging flooding and well-above-normal snowfall. However, the 1992 water year was relatively dry in Northern California, with snowfall just 66% of normal at the UC Berkeley Central Sierra Snow Lab. This underscores that even a very strong El Niño does not guarantee a wet winter in all parts of California.
While El Niño often boosts overall precipitation, it can also bring warmer storms. That means more rain and less snow in portions of the Sierra Nevada, reducing the natural snowpack that serves as California's largest seasonal water reservoir. Snowpack acts as a slow-release water storage system, melting gradually during spring and summer. Heavy winter rainfall may quickly fill reservoirs, but reduced snow accumulation can create water-supply challenges later in the year. The result is often what water experts describe as California's climate "whiplash" — moving rapidly between drought concerns and flood concerns within the same season. However, NOAA notes that California’s skiers and snowboarders can expect increased chances of a higher snowpack in the Sierra Nevada, adding nuance to the outlook.
Even before winter arrives, California's coastline may begin feeling El Niño's effects. Forecasters expect an active Pacific hurricane season fueled by exceptionally warm ocean temperatures. While most tropical systems are projected to stay well offshore, they can still produce large, long-period swells that travel hundreds or even thousands of miles across the Pacific. Those swells can create powerful rip currents, sneaker waves, coastal flooding during high tides, beach erosion, and dangerous surf conditions. The threat is especially noteworthy after multiple fatal surf-related incidents along California beaches this year. Some tropical systems may also send moisture northward into Southern California later in the season, increasing localized flash-flood risks.
Scientists are also closely monitoring the potential effects on California's marine ecosystems. Warmer Pacific waters can disrupt food webs, affect fish populations, and contribute to harmful algal blooms. The combination of a strong El Niño and the ongoing marine heat wave could have significant consequences for marine life, including shifts in species distribution and increased stress on already vulnerable populations. Additional impacts might also include a temporary rise in sea levels, coastal flooding and erosion, agricultural crop damage, and severe disruptions to marine life.
California is already experiencing a historic marine heat wave off its coast, which El Niño is expected to prolong. Research oceanographer Andrew Leising of NOAA's Southwest Fisheries Science Center said atmospheric changes from El Niño are helping maintain warmer-than-normal temperatures off Southern California. The heat wave, which began in 2023, is expected to expand further up the coast as El Niño strengthens. This could mean warmer ocean temperatures and increased heat waves on land, compounding risks from human-caused global warming. The most recent 'strong' El Niño in 2023-24 also played a role in record global temperatures in 2024, according to Celeste Saulo, secretary-general of the World Meteorological Organization.
Another marine heat wave farther west off the coast of Northern California and Oregon began around May and has slowly gotten larger and more intense, Leising added. Exceptionally warm waters are also helping to fuel Super Typhoon Bavi, which is expected to hit Taiwan with up to 35 inches of rain and dangerous waves up to 20 feet high.
El Niño is a natural climate pattern characterized by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. It typically weakens trade winds and shifts the jet stream, altering weather patterns worldwide. The current event is developing against a backdrop of record global temperatures and warming oceans, raising concerns among scientists about unprecedented combined effects. Every major ocean basin across the globe is currently experiencing unusually warm sea surface temperatures driven by climate change, according to the nonprofit Climate Central.
The compounding effects of climate change are a growing concern. As this exceptionally strong El Niño unfolds, climate scientists are increasingly concerned that human-driven climate change will amplify its impacts. During El Niño, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific rise above average, pumping extra heat into the atmosphere and shifting the Pacific jet stream southward. This raises the global temperature and alters weather patterns in various ways across the world. Now that El Niños are unfolding against the backdrop of global warming, they can boost Earth’s temperature into uncharted territory and exacerbate extreme weather events that are already growing more frequent and severe. “This is not a run-of-the-mill El Niño,” Daniel Swain, a climate scientist at the University of California Agriculture and Natural Resources, told the Associated Press. “We might not expect to see the exact same impacts from this event as we have seen in historical ones.” It’s important to note that stronger El Niño events don’t guarantee more severe impacts, but they can tilt the odds in favor of expected outcomes, according to NOAA. For the U.S., that means an increased likelihood of severe storms, heavy rainfall, and flooding in the South; a greater risk of tropical storms on the West Coast; and a heightened risk of heat waves and drought in the North.
Experts believe the combined impact of El Niño and climate change could make 2026 the hottest year on record, but as temperatures continue to rise after El Niño peaks, 2027 will likely be even hotter.
This year’s El Niño drives up the chances of extreme weather events like heat waves, drought and heavy rainfall in many parts of the globe, the World Meteorological Organization recently reported. “The WMO community has launched an unprecedented mobilization to coordinate activities across the United Nations and at regional level to support governments, humanitarian organizations and climate-sensitive sectors,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a recent statement. “Advanced seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to save lives and cushion the impact on our economies and our communities.”
Economists are warning that the “super” El Niño could cause a severe shock to global food prices lasting into 2028. As the Iran war pushes up world food prices to the highest level in three years, supply chains face “two shocks at once” stoked by extreme weather linked to global heating. According to analysts at Goldman Sachs, the strength of this El Niño could cause a 15.8% surge in global food commodity prices. That would have a knock-on effect worldwide, including for consumers in Europe, where it predicted food prices could rise by 1.3% across the eurozone. However, the full effect will take time because of how the cost of climate impact percolates through global food supplies. As a result, Goldman Sachs said the consequences could take until the second half of 2028 to be “fully realised”.
Most of the delay is down to the timing of extreme weather hitting food production, given the differing planting, growing and harvesting cycles for different types of crops. Logistical challenges – including water levels in canals and rivers used for key shipments – will also have an impact. “El Niño does not affect agriculture uniformly. It reshapes global rainfall and temperature patterns, creating regional winners and losers,” analysts at UBS said. Some regions could stand to benefit from warmer weather conditions.
El Niño would compound disruption caused by the Iran war by adding food supply chain woes to already higher prices, and shortages of fertiliser and energy supplies, analysts say. “Even modest supply disruptions could trigger large price moves than historical patterns could imply,” the UBS analysts said. Typically El Niños lead to elevated risks of drought in southern Africa and northern parts of South America, but flooding in southern Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay. Analysts say lower-income countries – already hit hardest by the Iran conflict – are likely to suffer most.
“El Niño has already begun to affect crops, driving a drier monsoon season in India, with some regions only experiencing 25% of their usual rainfall, and parts of central India only receiving 50%, which could affect supply for wheat, rice, and sugar cane,” the Goldman Sachs analysts wrote. The impact is likely to be felt across the world. Analysts say droughts in south-east Asia could affect palm oil supply – a significant ingredient in processed food – while harvests of coffee and cocoa could be affected. Warmer, wetter conditions could also exacerbate the spread of disease, hitting crop yields in future.
The prospect of a renewed inflation shock is also rattling central banks, adding to concern that interest rates could be kept at elevated levels. “El Niño puts ‘climateflation’ back on the agenda,” analysts at the Italian bank UniCredit wrote in a research note. “Europe’s recent heatwaves are a reminder that the climate baseline is already shifting. El Niño could add a new layer of pressure later this year, as it amplifies the effects of global warming.”
Californians, especially in Southern California, should prepare for a winter with heightened risks of heavy rain, flooding, and landslides. State and local agencies are urging residents to review emergency plans, clear drainage systems, and stay informed as the El Niño evolves. The combination of a very strong El Niño and ongoing marine heat waves underscores the need for proactive measures. Additionally, the potential for reduced snowpack, dangerous surf, and marine ecosystem disruptions adds further layers of complexity to the challenges ahead. On a global scale, the economic repercussions of this El Niño could be severe, with food price shocks expected to persist for years, particularly affecting lower-income countries already strained by conflict and rising costs.
