Tuesday, 28 July 2026, 12:05
Baja California Sur is facing a stark choice: continued real estate growth or water security. Governor Víctor Manuel Castro Cosío announced a proposal to refuse new construction permits unless developers can demonstrate sufficient water resources. The move comes as the region's water crisis deepens, with only 17% of residents having daily access to drinking water, while luxury condos and resorts multiply along the coast.
During the weekly Mañanera del Pueblo press briefing, Castro Cosío stated bluntly: “We have to make every effort so that buildings are no longer constructed in La Paz.” He noted that construction is “sprouting up everywhere” and must be regulated. The governor proposed a working group with the State Congress and municipal governments to draft legal reforms making water availability the primary criterion for approving new projects. Developers would need to prove their projects will not worsen shortages. “We have to take a firm, legal decision and say: enough. Water for everyone comes first,” he said.
The governor acknowledged that property owners currently have the legal right to build on their land as long as they obtain the proper municipal permits. But he argued that right cannot override the growing water crisis threatening the state’s long-term livability. “It is legitimate for someone to want to build on their land and obtain their licenses,” he said. “But we have a serious water problem.”
The proposal does not yet exist as formal legislation, and the governor stopped short of declaring an immediate moratorium. But his comments signal a significant shift in how the state government views the relationship between development and resource capacity. While existing permits would likely remain valid, any new applications could face stricter scrutiny and longer approval timelines. Municipal governments in La Paz and Los Cabos, which currently handle construction permits, would need to coordinate with the state to implement the new standards.
Castro Cosío also framed the issue as a question of priorities. In his view, the state can either continue approving projects and hope the water system catches up, or it can pause growth until infrastructure and resource capacity improve. “We have to regulate this,” he said. “First is the water for everyone.”
Critics of Baja’s development model have long argued that water planning has lagged behind construction approvals. The state’s aquifers are under pressure, and despite efforts to expand desalination and improve distribution infrastructure, demand continues to outpace supply. Residents in some Los Cabos neighborhoods have faced recurring shortages, and protests over water access have become more frequent.
The governor reiterated that the objective is to establish clear regulations to organize urban growth and prevent projects from being approved in areas where water infrastructure is already saturated or incapable of providing essential services. He also warned about the growing number of developments aimed at the tourism and short-term rental market, particularly in Loreto, where some projects are reportedly operating irregularly. “Foreigners come here; in Loreto we’ve received reports that people buy land but don’t even live there. They build three- or four-story apartment buildings and manage them through systems that are not considered hotels. They pay lower taxes, and these developments are multiplying. Everyone has the right to work and turn their home into a small business, but it has to be regulated,” he said.
Finally, Castro Cosío recalled that Baja California Sur’s Environmental Balance and Protection Law was recently updated for the first time since 1991, providing the state with stronger legal tools to better manage urban development and address the environmental impacts caused by rapid real estate expansion.
According to data from the Cómo Vamos La Paz Citizen Observatory and the Mexican Center for Environmental Law (CEMDA), the Municipality of La Paz issued 3,197 construction permits between 2019 and 2024. The Central Zone, El Centenario, and Coronado neighborhood account for the largest number of residential development permits, despite residents frequently reporting water shortages and other deficiencies in public services. Gabriela Ramírez, coordinator of the Territory Program at Cómo Vamos La Paz, stated that before authorizing new developments, authorities must evaluate whether existing urban infrastructure can support large-scale projects and their water demand. “The infrastructure is already overwhelmed in the city’s consolidated areas. What happens with the sewer system and the water supply? Every day there are changes in daily urban life in La Paz related to access to basic services. There is a contradiction in the data: we rank among the lowest in access to drinking water, yet La Paz is considered one of the country’s most competitive cities and has a strong capacity to attract investment.”
In a recent statement, Castro Cosío specifically warned that real estate development in Los Cabos should be halted until new water sources become available. He emphasized that the situation in Los Cabos is the most critical, and that if the desalination plant is not built or another alternative water source is not developed, construction in Los Cabos must stop. “New people arrive every day,” he stated. He also announced that he will promote a working group with the State Congress, municipal governments, and federal authorities, including Semarnat, to establish mechanisms that would require proof of water availability before approving new developments.
In a significant development, the United States and Mexico are teaming up to build a desalination plant and water distribution system in Rosarito, Baja California, which would reduce Mexico’s reliance on the dwindling Colorado River. The project has secured $114 million from an international bank, and parties aim to break ground next month, though a builder has not yet been selected. Previous attempts to build a desal plant in Rosarito have failed, but all parties seem committed this time. This project could provide a new water source for the region, potentially alleviating some of the pressure on Baja California Sur's water systems, though the plant is located in Baja California state, not Baja California Sur.
While Baja California Sur is in Mexico, its water crisis mirrors challenges in California's arid regions, such as the Colorado River basin and the Central Valley. California has faced similar tensions between development and water supply, with cities like Los Angeles and San Diego investing heavily in desalination and conservation. The Baja proposal could serve as a model—or a warning—for California communities grappling with groundwater depletion and drought.
As the water debate unfolds, the political landscape is shifting ahead of the 2027 gubernatorial election. Senator Milena Quiroga Romero, currently on leave from her post as mayor of La Paz, has emerged as the front-runner in the internal Morena contest to lead the party’s gubernatorial ticket. According to polling published by Demoscopía Digital on July 1, Quiroga holds 30.5% of voter preference, well ahead of other potential candidates within the party. Her support has climbed steadily from 26.7% in April to 27.3% in May, 29.7% in June, and now just over 30% in July, suggesting momentum.
Quiroga’s strategy has been straightforward and visible: constant travel. Rather than governing from a desk in La Paz city hall, she has spent months crisscrossing Baja California Sur’s rural delegations, coastal towns, and urban neighborhoods. According to reports from BCS Noticias, her team has framed this fieldwork as the reason for her rising numbers, emphasizing direct contact over mass media. For expats and long-term foreign residents, Quiroga’s tenure in La Paz included the pedestrian-only street initiative and emergency road repairs following last year’s storms.
Gubernatorial races in Baja California Sur matter beyond the usual campaign-season noise. The governor controls infrastructure budgets, water policy, tourism development, public security coordination, and permitting rules that affect everything from beachfront construction to desalination projects. A new administration in 2027 could shift priorities or double down on current projects. Morena’s internal selection process has not yet been formally announced, but the party is expected to finalize its candidate by early 2027. Quiroga’s lead gives her the inside track, but primary contests in Mexico can be unpredictable. The general election will follow later in 2027, and while Morena dominates Baja California Sur politics at the moment, opposition parties have not yet fielded serious challengers.
Baja California Sur's real estate boom has been fueled by tourism, luxury residential projects, and foreign investment, particularly in Los Cabos and La Paz. This growth has strained water systems, driven up housing costs, and accelerated gentrification, pricing out local families. Protests over water access have become frequent, and aquifers are under severe pressure despite efforts to expand desalination.
A groundbreaking surf and golf community is taking shape in Los Cabos, bringing the promise of North America’s first private wave basin and a reimagined luxury lifestyle to the Baja coastline. But beneath the glossy renderings and multimillion-dollar homesites, a harder question lingers: What does this kind of development mean for a region already struggling to keep the taps flowing?
Cabo Real Surf Club, officially launched in late 2024 by Meriwether Companies and the Sanchez Navarro family, has already generated more than $50 million in homesite sales. The project sits inside the established 3,000-acre Cabo Real master plan, wedged between the Sea of Cortez and the mountain foothills that define the Baja landscape. At its center is an Endless Surf wave basin, a pneumatic technology system designed to produce hundreds of customizable waves per hour with rides lasting up to 25 seconds and wave heights reaching seven feet. The development also includes plans for more than 200 homes, ranging from custom estate lots to surf casitas and ocean-view villas, all anchored by a Robert Trent Jones II-designed championship golf course. Pricing starts at $2.5 million.
For Los Cabos, Cabo Real Surf Club represents both opportunity and tension. On one hand, it is the latest addition to a destination that has built its reputation on high-end tourism, luxury real estate, and year-round sunshine. The project is expected to open in 2026, bringing construction jobs, new property tax revenue, and yet another amenity to attract affluent buyers and travelers. “My father acquired the land at Cabo Real in 1983 because of its beautiful beaches and ideal location between vibrant Cabo San Lucas and charming San Jose del Cabo,” Diego Sanchez Navarro, a partner in the Cabo Real master plan, told industry outlets. “With existing properties such as El Dorado Golf & Beach Club and Las Ventanas al Paraiso, it is fitting that Cabo Real will be home to the most exciting, next-gen community in the region.”
The surf technology itself is being marketed as sustainable and efficient, with wave production controlled digitally and water recirculated within the basin. Meriwether Companies, which is also developing similar amenities at Coral Mountain Desert Club in California, has positioned the project as a new standard for adventure-driven, wellness-oriented communities.
But the timing is awkward. Los Cabos has spent the better part of the past decade grappling with water scarcity, drought cycles, aquifer depletion, and the increasing demands of a tourism economy that now welcomes millions of visitors each year. Previous coverage of the development has noted its ambitions but stopped short of examining what a private wave basin, golf course irrigation, and more than 200 homes will mean for regional water use. Wave basins, even those that recirculate water, require significant initial fills and ongoing top-ups to compensate for evaporation, splash-out, and filtration losses. Golf courses in arid climates are notoriously thirsty, and luxury homes in Baja tend to feature pools, landscaping, and water-intensive fixtures. None of this is inherently reckless, but in a place where water stress is a known and worsening issue, the math becomes harder to ignore.
To date, developers have not publicly disclosed detailed water sourcing plans, usage estimates, or conservation commitments for Cabo Real Surf Club. That is not unusual for early-stage projects, but it is the kind of transparency that residents, environmental advocates, and municipal officials are increasingly demanding as water conservation efforts become more urgent across Baja California Sur. The larger question is whether Los Cabos can continue to accommodate luxury developments without undermining the very resources that make the region livable. Water policy in Baja Sur is fragmented, enforcement is inconsistent, and desalination plants remain expensive and energy-intensive. Wealthy developments can afford their own solutions — private wells, onsite treatment systems, trucked water — but those workarounds do not solve the underlying problem.
For longtime residents and local businesses, the concern is not whether Cabo Real Surf Club will be a beautiful place. It almost certainly will be. The concern is whether projects like this will accelerate the day when water restrictions, rationing, or service interruptions become the norm rather than the exception. As construction moves forward and the 2026 opening approaches, the story of Cabo Real Surf Club will be written in two chapters. One will celebrate innovation, investment, and the evolution of Los Cabos as a world-class destination. The other will ask whether the region is building a future it can actually sustain.
The governor's proposal signals a major shift in prioritizing resource capacity over unchecked development. While details remain to be worked out—including how the state would measure water availability for individual projects, who would enforce the new standards, and what happens to developments already under construction—the message is clear: sustainable growth must put water first. For California and other arid regions, this could be a precedent-setting move.
