Federal meteorologists announced Thursday that El Niño, a natural climate pattern characterized by warming of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, has officially formed and is expected to grow to historic strength. The event, which is already being nicknamed "super" or "Godzilla" by some experts, is predicted to rival the record El Niño that began in 1997, which caused billions of dollars in damage from heat waves, floods, droughts, tornadoes, and wildfires worldwide.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) confirmed the El Niño's arrival, noting a 63% chance that it will intensify so much by late fall and early winter that it "would rank among the largest El Niño events in the historical record going back to 1950." The warming of the Pacific brings extra heat to the ocean surface, fueling extreme weather events across the globe, according to Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier.
She warned that conditions, especially in the Pacific region, "can get dire very quickly."
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the phenomenon as an "urgent climate warning," stating that "El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world." The event is expected to further heat a planet already warming from fossil fuel pollution, potentially making 2027 the hottest year on record due to lagging effects.
El Niño's impacts vary by region. It often dampens Atlantic hurricane activity but increases it in the Pacific, putting Hawaii and other islands at greater risk.
The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, while parts of western South America face heavy rain and floods. India is expected to experience more intense heat waves, and Australia faces drought, wildfires, and heat.
Northeastern Africa may see a dangerous shift from intense drought to heavy rains.
In the United States, El Niño can cause more intense storms with heavier rainfall in the South, but generally benefits agriculture, particularly grains and soybeans. The northern Rockies and Southwest, which are experiencing severe snow drought, could receive strong summer rains.
The biggest U.S. effects often occur in winter, with the South becoming wetter and the Pacific Northwest warmer and drier.
However, overall higher temperatures can dampen American economic growth, according to Stanford climate economist Marshall Burke.
Scientists predict that El Niños will become stronger as the world continues to warm from burning coal, oil, and gas. Columbia University climate scientist Muhammad Azhar Ehsan emphasized that instead of being scared, people should be prepared for the coming extremes.