El Niño, the chaotic climate agent of nature, has officially formed in a warmed Pacific Ocean and is expected to intensify to historic levels, meteorologists announced Thursday. The U.S.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration confirmed the existence of the El Niño, a natural warming cycle that affects global weather patterns. Experts warn that this El Niño will further heat a planet already warming due to fossil fuel pollution and will likely turbocharge extreme weather events worldwide.
NOAA's announcement indicates a 63% chance that the El Niño will become so intense by late fall and early winter that it would rank among the largest events in the historical record since 1950. Clark University climate scientist Abby Frazier explained that the warm, deep waters of an El Niño bring extra heat to the surface, fueling extreme events globally.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres described the phenomenon as an urgent climate warning, stating that El Niño conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world.
The impacts of this El Niño are expected to vary by region. While it may dampen Atlantic hurricane activity, it increases the risk in the Pacific, putting Hawaii and other islands in greater danger.
The drought-stricken Middle East could benefit, while parts of western South America face heavy rain and floods. India may experience more intense heat waves, and Australia faces drought, wildfires, and heat.
Northeastern Africa is likely to see a shift from intense drought to dangerously heavy rains, according to Columbia University climate scientist Muhammad Azhar Ehsan.
In the United States, El Niño can cause more intense storms with heavier rainfall in the South, but it generally benefits the agriculture industry, particularly for grains and soybeans. The northern Rockies and Southwest, which are experiencing an off-the-charts snow drought, could receive strong summer rains.
However, Stanford climate economist Marshall Burke noted that overall, higher temperatures from the weather pattern can dampen American economic growth.
Several climate scientists forecast that 2027 will be the hottest year on record due to the lagging effects of this El Niño, which is expected to peak in the fall or winter. The early indications, including warmer water pushing toward the surface of the Pacific, have been so strong that forecasters are predicting an ultra-strong El Niño.
Scientists predict stronger El Niños as the world warms from burning fossil fuels, but it is too early to say if this event is part of that trend. Even before its official formation, this El Niño has earned nicknames ranging from super to Godzilla.
Columbia's Ehsan urged preparation rather than fear.