A very strong El Niño is now likely for the upcoming winter, but historical data shows it does not guarantee a wet season for California. - El Niño conditions have officially begun with ocean temperatures expected to peak nearly 2°C above normal.
- Only three of seven very strong El Niños since 1950 have brought well-above-average rainfall to California. - The 1991-92 and 2015-16 very strong El Niños resulted in below-average or barely above-average rainfall.
- Other climate factors like the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño Modoki also play critical roles. While a very strong El Niño increases the odds of a wet winter, it is far from a certainty, as demonstrated by past events.