Thursday, 6 August 2026, 13:39
California is bracing for a winter with unusually high flood risk. Climate experts are warning that a fast-strengthening El Niño could bring record sea levels, coastal flooding and beach erosion to the state in the coming months.
The warming signal in the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean is already strong. ABC7 reported that ocean temperatures along the equatorial Pacific are running 1.2 degrees Celsius above average, while climate scientist Daniel Swain told The Press Democrat that the current ocean temperature is "literally higher than it has ever been for this calendar date."
"It is expected to strengthen considerably from here, ultimately to a very strong or so-called Super El Niño," Swain said.
Swain added that the event could become "potentially the strongest on record" and could mean "an event we haven't seen before in living memory in California."
Mark Merrifield of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography said the combination of long-term sea level rise plus El Niño-driven ocean expansion is likely to produce "the highest sea levels ever recorded on the California coast." He predicted a half-foot to a foot of "anomalously high" sea levels, with king tides peaking near the end of the year.
High waves on top of elevated sea levels and high tides could cause considerable coastal flooding, saltwater intrusion into groundwater and cliff failures. Merrifield noted that during El Niño events, beaches across California tend to move landward by about 30 meters.
More than 5,700 people according to ABC7, or nearly 6,000 according to The Press Democrat, tuned in to a virtual town hall on August 4 organized by State Sen. Mike McGuire. The meeting was designed to "separate hype from reality" about the Super El Niño. The panel included Swain, Merrifield and Nate Ortiz of the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services.
The attendance figures differ slightly between outlets, but both describe a large regional audience. The discussion focused on the fall and winter window, with the biggest impacts expected from late December through March.
Ortiz said Cal OES is working with the National Guard, CHP, Caltrans, Cal Fire, the Department of Water Resources and the Flood Operations Center to refine flood response plans. He encouraged residents to sign up for local emergency alert systems, noting that Sonoma and Napa counties have specific websites for this.
Swain also warned that many California homeowners do not carry flood insurance. Residents in high-risk coastal areas may want to consider obtaining coverage before the season begins.
The Bay Area has reason to pay close attention. Water levels in San Francisco Bay rose significantly during the 2023-24 El Niño and king tides, and experts say the current system appears even stronger. North Bay communities, including parts of Sonoma County, are still recovering from earlier storm and king tide flooding.
El Niño is not a single storm. It is a climate pattern that warms the eastern Pacific Ocean and can shift the Pacific storm track. Strong events historically increase the odds of a wet winter in California, particularly in Southern California, and this unusually strong event could boost rainfall in Northern California as well.
The forecast is based on current models and could change. But the warning signs are clear: record sea levels, coastal erosion and flooding are real possibilities. California residents should monitor official forecasts, review their flood insurance and sign up for emergency alerts now.
