Study on Wildfire Evacuation Risks Suggests Controversial Shelter-in-Place Refuges

A new study from UC Santa Barbara has ignited a contentious debate among wildfire experts by recommending that fire-prone communities establish designated refuge areas for residents who cannot evacuate. The research, which analyzed wildfire deaths in California and across the United States between 2008 and 2024, found that fatalities were concentrated in communities with limited exit routes.

The study proposes creating "preplanned shelter-in-place options" that could "enhance survival when evacuation fails."

The 2018 Camp Fire in Paradise, east of Chico, serves as a stark example. While some residents died in vehicles trapped in traffic, hundreds survived by taking shelter in parking lots and other areas they found on their own or were directed to by first responders.

However, the idea of investing in shelter-in-place refuges is "one of the great controversial issues" in wildfire response, according to UC Berkeley fire scientist Michael Gollner.

Gollner acknowledged that a last-ditch survival option could save people trapped by flames, but warned it might also discourage residents from evacuating early, increasing risks for both civilians and firefighters. Seth Schalet, CEO of the Santa Clara County FireSafe Council, supports including designated temporary refuges in wildfire response plans, allowing officials to communicate where people should go in a last-resort situation.

He emphasized that public outreach and education would be essential to prevent residents from delaying evacuation due to reliance on refuges.

Chelsea Burkett, spokesperson for Cal Fire's Santa Clara County Unit, expressed reservations about publicly designating such sites. "If we're giving an evacuation order or a warning, that's us saying, 'This is the time to start moving,'" Burkett said.

"We would rather people adhere to those warnings and those orders that are given rather than having to use those temporary refuge areas."

Gollner noted that refuges could save lives in certain situations but must be identified in advance by local emergency managers, who would decide when to activate them. He added that such sites would need to be staffed by first responders, potentially diverting resources from firefighting efforts.

"It can quickly turn into a tragedy if not well thought out," Gollner warned.

Michael Wara, a senior research scholar at Stanford University's Woods Institute for the Environment, highlighted the vulnerability of older adults in Bay Area communities at risk of burning. "My favorite neighbors are also most likely to die in a fire," said Wara, who lives in Mill Valley.

"It would make sense to have a temporary refuge." He stressed that any outdoor shelter must be fire-resistant and provide protection from heat and flames. "The heat from these fires can be enough to kill people," Wara said.

"People's lungs get burned and then they suffocate."

Wara suggested that public agencies could use funds to fire-harden a small number of homes or buildings to serve as last-resort community refuges. However, he acknowledged Cal Fire's perspective: "They want people to get out of there."