San Diego's Gerrymandered CA-48 Could Decide House Control

The redrawing of California's congressional map, aimed at flipping five Republican seats to Democrats, has created a fiercely competitive district in San Diego's 48th Congressional District. The new lines, drawn by veteran redistricting specialist Paul Mitchell, were intended to give Democrats a strong chance, but a crowded primary field and California's nonpartisan primary system could backfire, potentially locking Democrats out of the general election.

Mitchell, hired by Governor Gavin Newsom, spent weeks in 2025 crafting a map that would counter Republican gains in Texas. The new CA-48 district, which includes Palm Springs and parts of San Diego County, would have voted for Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024, a significant shift from the old district, which favored Donald Trump by over 10 points.

However, the district remains competitive, with a well-funded Republican like former Rep. Darrell Issa, who initially represented the area, having a fighting chance.

Issa dropped out of the race and endorsed San Diego County Supervisor Jim Desmond. The Democratic field is crowded with candidates like Ammar Campa-Najjar, a serial candidate and boyfriend of Rep.

Sara Jacobs; Marni von Wilpert, a San Diego City Council member; and Brandon Riker, an economist. None have secured the party's endorsement, and with a half-dozen other Democrats in the race, there's a risk that two Republicans could advance to the general election, as suggested by a mid-April poll showing Desmond leading and another Republican, Kevin O'Neil, in second place.

Local Democratic leaders have urged weaker candidates to drop out, but only one has done so. The outcome could hinge on local factors, including candidate quality and voter turnout, rather than national trends.

The district's transformation, driven by coastal home prices pushing Democratic-leaning voters inland, has made the area more diverse, but the rapid redistricting process left little time for party coordination.

Campa-Najjar, who has run for Congress twice before, is running as a more conventional Democrat this time, having previously taken conservative stances on issues like gun control. Von Wilpert, favored by the establishment, touts her work on the city council and airport authority.

The primary is set for June 2, and the results could determine control of the House.