Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who rose to international prominence earlier this year with a fiery speech in Davos condemning great-power coercion, is expected to adopt a more cautious tone toward U.S. President Donald Trump at the upcoming Group of Seven summit in France.
The summit, beginning Monday in Évian-les-Bains, comes just weeks before the scheduled July 1 review of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), the trade pact that has deeply integrated the North American economies since the 1990s. With more than 70% of Canada's exports going to the United States, preserving the agreement is critical for Ottawa.
Trump has threatened not to renew the deal, and his administration has repeatedly noted that Canada and China were the only countries to retaliate in the ongoing trade war. U.S.
Trade Representative Jamieson Greer has called Canada's retaliatory measures a major sticking point in negotiations.
Carney arrived in Paris on Friday and is scheduled to meet with French President Emmanuel Macron before the summit. He will also travel to Ireland over the weekend to meet with the Irish prime minister as part of his strategy to diversify Canada's trade away from the U.S.
This marks Carney's ninth trip to Europe since becoming prime minister in March 2025. The Canadian leader has set a goal to double non-U.S.
exports within a decade, arguing that Trump's trade war is chilling investment. However, political analysts note a tension between Carney's earlier rhetoric about middle powers standing up to hegemons and his current efforts to nudge the Trump administration toward a favorable USMCA review.
Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University, observed that Carney has moderated his tone to avoid worsening relations, even as Trump continues to suggest Canada should become the 51st U.S. state.
The summit unfolds against a backdrop of frayed relations between the two longtime allies. Ontario Premier Doug Ford's reception with the U.S.
Chamber of Commerce in Washington was canceled at the last minute, and the opening of a major Canadian bridge across the Detroit River—previously threatened by Trump—was delayed due to unresolved issues. Trump leaves for the G7 summit after hosting UFC fights at the White House for his 80th birthday.
Despite the tensions, Carney has downplayed Trump's latest comments about annexation, focusing instead on the economic stakes. Canada and Mexico want the USMCA renewed for another 16 years, but Trump has mused about withdrawing.
More likely, the pact will face annual reviews for the next decade. Béland emphasized that the U.S.
will remain Canada's largest trading partner for the foreseeable future, a reality Carney must keep front of mind even as he seeks to reduce dependence.