Forecasters are warning that a powerful El Niño weather pattern is already underway and could intensify later this year into one of the most significant events in decades. During a press conference at the Aquarium of the Pacific in Long Beach on Thursday, experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reported that the growing El Niño has a 63% chance of developing into one of the strongest systems since 1950 between November and January.
This shift in Pacific winds and water temperatures is expected to redirect trapped oceanic heat toward California’s coast, bringing torrential rain, warmer tides, and a cascade of ecological disruptions.
For Long Beach and much of Southern California, the winter season from December to February could see stronger rains and a sea level rise of about six inches statewide. Storms that typically originate from the northwest are expected to move directly into the state.
Surface water temperatures, which normally range between 55 and 72 degrees Fahrenheit in summer, could rise by 2 to 3 degrees on average. Nate Jaros, vice president of animal care at the Aquarium of the Pacific, explained that even a few degrees of warming can throw the ecosystem off balance, leaving marine life vulnerable to starvation or toxic algal blooms.
Warmer waters are likely to drive disoriented marine life closer to shore in search of food. Species such as mako sharks, yellowfin tuna, mahi mahi, yellow-bellied sea snakes, seahorses, red crabs, and possibly even whale sharks may appear near Long Beach beaches.
Aquarium officials highlighted that sea lions are at especially high risk, and residents should not be surprised to find stranded animals on the sand. The public is urged to call the NOAA West Coast Marine Mammal Stranding Network hotline at 866-767-6114 if they spot an animal in distress.
Brett Long, another aquarium vice president, warned that nutritionally challenged animals may hit the beaches, and harmful algal blooms could cause seizures and visible illness in marine life.
Projections about the strength of this El Niño remain mixed. Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Los Angeles, noted that the pattern is still in its early stages and may not live up to the hype.
He pointed out that the 2015–2016 Super El Niño failed to deliver the wetter-than-average winter that was expected for Southern California. However, if the most recent forecasts prove accurate, this year’s El Niño could be a major event, with consequences for a region already struggling with declining marine life and kelp populations.
Cohen added that this season could offer Long Beach residents a preview of what coastal life will be like in a decade or two if global warming continues at its current pace.
“I know folks may want to have an exact vision for how things are going to evolve in terms of weather patterns, but we just don’t have the scientific basis to give full confidence at this point,” Cohen said. “We’re already seeing the conditions favoring this El Niño pattern come into light here now.”