Who Will Win the California Governor Primary? Three Names Have Emerged

The California gubernatorial primary on June 2 has narrowed to a three-way race among Democrat Xavier Becerra, Republican Steve Hilton, and billionaire climate activist Tom Steyer. With 61 candidates on the ballot in the state's nonpartisan "jungle" primary, the top two vote-getters, regardless of party, will advance to the November general election.

Recent polls show a tight contest. A Public Policy Institute of California poll released May 27 has Becerra at 23%, Hilton at 20%, and Steyer at 15%.

A UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll from May 29 shows Becerra at 25%, Hilton at 21%, and Steyer at 19%. An Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics poll from May 30 has Becerra at 28%, Steyer at 22%, and Hilton at 21%, raising the possibility of two Democrats advancing if Steyer surpasses Hilton.

About one in four voters remain undecided, and low turnout is expected—fewer than 40% of California's 23 million registered voters are projected to participate. Democratic voters, especially women, are returning ballots at lower rates than in 2022, reflecting uncertainty over the crowded field.

Becerra, the former Health and Human Services Secretary, surged after former U.S. Rep.

Eric Swalwell dropped out in April amid sexual assault allegations. He leads among Democratic voters, Latinos, and independents.

Hilton, endorsed by President Donald Trump, aims to end Democratic one-party rule and has consolidated Republican support after a bitter fight with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. Steyer, who has spent over $200 million of his own money, promotes a progressive platform including closing corporate tax loopholes.

The debates offered no clear winner, with candidates frequently talking over each other. The next governor will manage a $4 trillion economy, multibillion-dollar debt, housing costs, homelessness, and wildfire prevention.

California's national influence is significant, with figures like Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom seen as 2028 presidential contenders, though none have endorsed a gubernatorial candidate.

At nearly $316 million, this is the most expensive governor's race on record. Steyer's self-funding has drawn criticism, while Becerra has benefited from about $24 million in outside contributions.

Steyer has accused corporate donors like Chevron and PG&E of backing Becerra.