El Niño conditions are strengthening in the Pacific, with a 63% chance of a very strong event by winter. This could bring heavy rain and flooding to California, but also poses drought risks if it fizzles.
- NOAA forecasts a 63% chance of very strong El Niño from November to January. - Past strong El Niños have caused both wet and dry winters in California.
- Current ocean temperatures are 1.3°F above normal, potentially reaching 5.4°F. - Risks include flooding in areas like Coyote Creek and the Russian River.
While reservoirs are full after three wet winters, a dry winter could return drought. The event may also exacerbate global climate impacts.