The strategic stranglehold Iran has held over the Strait of Hormuz appears to be loosening, with more oil from Gulf Arab states reaching global markets, according to analysts and U.S. officials.
The strait, through which about a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas once passed, has been effectively shut since February due to Iranian attacks on shipping during the ongoing war. Even after much of Iran's navy was sunk, the mere threat of attacks kept shippers and insurers wary, contributing to global inflation, including in the United States.
Recent developments suggest a shift. President Donald Trump claimed a "secret mission" to provide overwatch for vessels has enabled the passage of over 100 million barrels of crude oil.
Analysts at Kpler, a commodities monitoring firm, have tracked approximately 96 million barrels of non-Iranian crude exports from the region since early May, with the total expected to exceed 100 million barrels, aligning with Trump's statement. This flow, while still below the pre-war level of 15 million barrels per day, could alter the crisis's dynamics if sustained or increased.
The U.S. military is conducting a limited overwatch operation using autonomous vehicles, aircraft, and drone escorts to guide ships through the southern part of the strait near Oman's coast, according to Richard Meade of Lloyd's List Intelligence.
This operation likely involved the U.S. Army AH-64 Apache helicopter that crashed off Oman this week after reportedly being hit by an Iranian drone.
Meanwhile, the U.S. blockade is squeezing Iran's oil industry.
American forces have repeatedly stopped or fired upon vessels associated with Iran's sanctioned oil trade, including an attack that killed three Indian sailors. Iran is now storing crude onshore and using tankers off Kharg Island, with onshore storage estimated at 69 million barrels, the highest since 2020.
Wood Mackenzie reports Iran's oil output has dropped by 800,000 barrels per day since the blockade began. President Masoud Pezeshkian acknowledged the pressure in a televised address, stating, "We are currently under sanctions, and our routes have been blocked.
We face a difficult test."
Despite these pressures, the conflict remains highly uncertain. This week saw intense exchanges of fire between Iran, Israel, and the United States.
Trump threatened to seize Kharg Island and intensify bombing, then later claimed progress in negotiations. Iran insists the strait is closed, with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi rejecting its status as an international waterway.
Oil prices have stayed below $100 a barrel, partly due to Trump's promises of a deal and countries using reserves. China's seaborne crude imports fell to 6.8 million barrels per day in May, the lowest since October 2016, buying time for the global economy.
However, a diplomatic resolution may be needed soon to prevent a dire energy crisis in the coming months.