President Donald Trump is set to depart for France to attend the G7 summit, where the escalating conflict with Iran is expected to overshadow other agenda items. Originally planned to focus on economic and security issues, the meeting has been overtaken by surging energy costs and deep divisions among world leaders over the U.S.-led war in Iran.
Trump will meet with French President Emmanuel Macron and other European leaders, with whom he has clashed over trade, Ukraine, and security since returning to office. The U.S.
president is also scheduled to hold group and individual meetings with key Middle Eastern leaders and attend a working session with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and G7 leaders, according to senior U.S. administration officials who spoke on condition of anonymity.
The tensions between the U.S. and its G7 allies over the Iran war erupted publicly weeks ago when Trump announced the withdrawal of at least 5,000 U.S.
troops from Germany during a dispute over European reluctance to support the military campaign. The decision was partially reversed, with troops redirected to Poland, but the episode highlighted the real security consequences of crossing the president, diplomats say.
Constanze Stelzenmüller, a transatlantic security expert at the Brookings Institution, noted that leaders will carry that lesson into their meetings with Trump. "Any meeting that includes the president raises the prospect of significant uncertainty," she said.
"The president's volatility is legendary. He could get upset very quickly.
He can be charming at other times. And he can whiplash between one or the other in the blink of an eye."
Despite the friction, some analysts argue that U.S. pressure has inadvertently strengthened European cohesion.
Nathalie Tocci, a former top EU foreign policy adviser now at Johns Hopkins SAIS Europe, said repeated U.S. threats over trade, defense spending, and security policy have pushed European governments closer together and fostered greater strategic autonomy.
"The Europeans are in a much better place now than they were a year ago," Tocci said. "I would say there is less bending of the knee going on and there's more willingness to politely sort of be firm on certain issues." However, Europe remains in a bind due to Trump's war and its economic fallout.
The United Kingdom is working with France to build a coalition for demining the Strait of Hormuz once a peace deal is reached. Trump has said he expects European and other Western countries dependent on the strait to play a role, a topic likely to be discussed at the summit.
Trump also has other priorities, including strengthening economic ties, investment partnerships, and the critical mineral supply chain, as well as addressing global issues like innovation, artificial intelligence, and the Ebola outbreak. Yet the divide comes at a time of heightened global risk.
Brett Bruen, a former National Security Council official under Obama who will meet with G7 officials at the summit, said the situation shows the limits of an America First approach to a global crisis. "If the United States can't contain the fallout from a military operation of our choice against a single country, that at best is a middling power," he said.
"How on earth are we going to be able to push back against a larger power, a nuclear power?"