El Niño conditions have officially developed in the Pacific, with a 63% chance of becoming a very strong event by winter 2026-27. This could lead to a wetter and more volatile winter for California, especially Southern California, with increased rain, flood risk, and mountain snow.
However, past strong El Niños have varied, and outcomes depend on complex atmospheric factors beyond ocean temperatures. NOAA advises that while the odds tilt toward a stormier season, it is not a guarantee of above-average precipitation.