Becerra and Hilton Lead in Unpredictable California Governor's Race

Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton were leading in the race for California governor in early returns Tuesday night, a nailbiter befitting the most unsettled gubernatorial race in recent memory. The two were neck-and-neck after about 4.8 million ballots, or about 55% of the votes, were counted statewide.

It could be days or weeks before votes are completely tallied. Democrat Tom Steyer, who polls showed was locked in a tight battle with Hilton for second place behind Becerra, was behind in early returns, drawing about 20% of the vote.

Tuesday’s election concluded a long and winding campaign in which Democrats struggled to pick a new leader for the nation’s most populous blue state. Becerra’s likely finish in the top two caps a swift ascent after polling so low just three months ago that he wasn’t invited to a candidate debate.

Addressing supporters Tuesday night in Los Angeles, he called his campaign a “good underdog story” after being “overlooked by many and outspent by a ton.” “The underdog stayed in the fight,” he said to a cheering crowd. The decision comes at a particularly consequential time for California.

Residents face a crushing cost of living, nation-topping gas prices made worse by the war in Iran, wildfire risks that have driven insurance companies out of state, an unstable state budget, impending federal cuts to the state’s expansive health system and an economy dampened by immigration enforcement. The seat is considered a shoo-in in November for Democrats, who have nearly twice as many registered voters as Republicans, and holds national importance for the Democratic Party’s pushback to the Trump administration.

Becerra, the former state attorney general and U.S. health secretary in the Biden administration, has promised to fight President Donald Trump and freeze insurance and utility rates.

He surged to become the Democratic establishment’s favorite after former Rep. Eric Swalwell dropped out of the race over sexual assault allegations.

Hilton, a Trump-endorsed former Fox News host who has vowed to cut income taxes, slash environmental regulations and boost oil drilling, consolidated support from many of the state’s conservatives. “Change is coming to California, and it’s long overdue,” he told a crowd of supporters in Huntington Beach who chanted “USA.” Billionaire climate activist Steyer, a progressive Democrat who has self-funded his campaign to the tune of $213 million, was still fighting for one of the top spots.

A series of polls released in the final days of the race showed Becerra in the lead with roughly a quarter of likely voters’ support, and Steyer and Hilton locked in a tight battle for second. In a speech Tuesday night in San Francisco, Steyer said he was “feeling good” and would wait “until every ballot is counted.” The race to succeed Gov.

Gavin Newsom, who will leave office at the end of the year due to term limits, has been one of the most unusually open races in recent state history. “Those polls could become self-fulfilling,” said Paul Mitchell, a Democratic strategist whose company tracks ballot return data.

Trump’s endorsement of Hilton quickly helped him pull away from fellow Republican and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco in recent months, making it unlikely both Republicans would come in first and second as Democrats had feared in the spring. Three other Democrats conceded Tuesday night after returns showed they would not have enough votes to advance: former U.S.

Rep. Katie Porter, whose progress stalled in recent weeks, and moderates San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan and former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa.

Affordability has dominated the race. Both Hilton and Steyer have spent the final weeks of the campaign portraying Becerra as a symbol of the status quo and themselves as agents of systemic change.

Hilton promised to end 16 years of “one-party rule” under Democrats, to slash spending and reverse many liberal policies such as greenhouse gas reduction mandates, the progressive tax system and parts of the social safety net. Steyer styled himself as a populist “class traitor” who would force lower costs for Californians by taking on monied special interests like investor-owned utilities, the real estate industry and health insurance corporations.

He made a litany of progressive promises on climate change, single-payer health care and raising taxes on the wealthy. Becerra has not proposed policies that are major departures from Newsom’s terms.

Instead, he has emphasized his long experience in government, including his lawsuits against the first Trump administration and his time as U.S. Health and Human Services secretary during the pandemic.

He would be the first Latino to serve as governor in more than a century, and the first one to win election for the seat. [image_1]