A tentative agreement to end the Iran war could reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but experts warn it may take weeks or months for consumers to see lower prices. - Oil prices fell to about $80 per barrel, but refineries pay for crude in advance, delaying gasoline price drops.
- Airlines and grocers face lagging cost reductions due to advance purchasing and supply chain inertia. - Farmers worldwide face a fertilizer shortage, with 30% of global supply previously passing through the strait.
- Retailers and shippers expect higher costs to persist through 2026 and 2027. The bottom line: even with a deal, normalizing supply chains and consumer prices will be a lengthy process.