NOAA’s National Weather Service has confirmed the formation of El Niño in the tropical Pacific, with a forecast for strengthening into a moderate or strong event by fall and peaking during the 2026-2027 winter. Sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific are at least 0.5°C above average, meeting the threshold for El Niño.
There is a 63% chance that temperatures will exceed 2.0°C, which would classify the event as “very strong.” Typical U.S. impacts include a warmer winter in the north, a southward shift in storm tracks, and drier conditions in the Northern Rockies and Ohio/Tennessee valleys.
NOAA has adopted a new monitoring index, the Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI), for more reliable ENSO detection. Residents of Modoc County and Likely should prepare for a winter that may be warmer than average, with potential changes in storm patterns and coastal flooding risks.