El Niño conditions are highly likely to develop soon and persist through winter, but past events show unpredictable local impacts. - 82% chance of El Niño starting next month, 96% chance lasting through February.
- Last strong El Niño (2015-2016) brought dry conditions to Southern California and wet weather to the Pacific Northwest. - California's last wet winter (2022-2023) occurred during La Niña, not El Niño.
- Other factors like long-term trends and soil moisture also influence winter weather. While El Niño is a key driver, it does not guarantee a specific outcome for California; more data is needed for an accurate winter forecast.