A developing El Niño is showing its first atmospheric effects, with shifts in pressure, wind, and ocean temperatures. Experts warn of a potential 'super El Niño' that could influence weather across North America into late summer and fall.
- El Niño conditions are expected to lead to a more active Pacific hurricane season and a less active Atlantic hurricane season. - The weather pattern may also influence the North American monsoon, though the connection is less consistent than its impact on winter weather.
- A Kelvin wave, a large pulse of subsurface warm water, is currently in a downwelling phase, pushing warm water eastward and supporting El Niño development. - For California, El Niño has little direct influence on summer weather, but a more active eastern Pacific hurricane season can increase the chance of tropical moisture reaching the region.
While the overall outlook for the Atlantic hurricane season leans below normal, forecasters caution that impact risk remains significant, particularly from storms that form closer to land or undergo rapid intensification.