The chance of a powerful El Niño is rising, with up to 37% likelihood of a very strong event. Southern California could see heavy rain, flooding, and coastal erosion this winter.
- There is an 82% chance El Niño will emerge in the coming months, up from 61% last month. - A very strong El Niño has a 37% chance by year's end, similar to the 1982-83 and 1997-98 events that caused major damage.
- However, the 2015-16 El Niño did not bring expected rain to Southern California, showing other factors like atmospheric rivers also matter. - Strong El Niños can reduce wildfire risk but also increase flooding and coastal erosion risks.
Residents should prepare for potential heavy rain and flooding, though forecasts may still change.